About the Toolkit

(I) Overview

Many countries are increasingly vulnerable to destructive weather events—floods, droughts, windstorms, or other parameters. The vulnerability is driven in part by climate but also by countries’ sensitivity to events exacerbated by past practices, socioeconomic conditions, or legacy issues. The degree to which vulnerability to weather affects the countries’ economies is driven by their coping or adaptive capacities.

Seasonal weather patterns, weather variability, and extreme events can affect the production and supply of energy, impact transmission capacity, disrupt oil and gas production, and impact the integrity of transmission pipelines and power distribution networks. Climate change also affects patterns of seasonal energy demand. It is important to explore these vulnerabilities for the energy sector given its major contribution to economic development, the long life span of energy infrastructure planning, and the dependence of energy supply and demand on weather.

HEAT– A Hands-on Energy Adaptation Toolkit is designed to lead you through as assessment of climate vulnerabilities and adaptation options in the energy sector of your country. HEAT can help you raise awareness among key stakeholders and initiate dialogue on energy sector adaptation.

HEAT uses a bottom-up, stakeholder-based, qualitative/semi-quantitative risk-assessment approach to discuss and identify risks, adaptation measures, and their costs and benefits. It draws on experience and published guidance from the United Kingdom and Australia, as well as existing research and literature.

HEAT’s climate vulnerability assessment framework puts stakeholders at the heart of the decision-making process and involves:

Climate risk screening of the energy sector to identify and prioritize hazards, current vulnerabilities, and risks from projected climate changes out to the year 2050.
Identification of adaptation options to reduce overall vulnerability.
A high-level cost benefit analysis of key physical adaptation options.

HEAT has been successfully piloted in Albania and Uzbekistan. This experience has demonstrated how HEAT can help countries and energy sector stakeholders develop policies and projects that are robust in the face of climatic uncertainties, and assist them in managing existing energy concerns as the climate changes. HEAT identifies key direct risks to energy supply and demand and options for adaptation to establish where to focus subsequent in-depth analyses. It also identifies additional research needed to better understand the implications of extreme climatic events for the energy sector as well as potential indirect impacts—such as possible adaptation actions in the agriculture sector that may affect energy supply.

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(ii) The Assessment Process

This toolkit has been designed to support hands-on climate vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the energy sector. It provides a risk-based process to inform high-level decision-making by governments about how to adapt the energy sector to improve its resilience to climate variability and climate change.

The outputs of the process are:

A greater awareness and deeper understanding among stakeholders,
High-level (semi-quantitative) assessments of key risks and adaptation options for the energy sector,
Clarity on where subsequent more in-depth analyses should be focused.

The risk-based process is broken down into eight stages, shown in the Framework Diagram. It is based around two participatory workshops and related meetings, designed to engage energy sector stakeholders in thinking about climate resilience:

A first workshop and series of meetings on ‘Climate risks & vulnerabilities’,
A second workshop and meetings on ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’.

For each of the eight stages, the toolkit provides instructions on:

Who’s involved in undertaking the stage,
Timing for when to do each stage and the time required to undertake each stage,
Key questions that should be answered at each stage,
Tools to help,
Guidance describing what should be done at each stage,
Outputs of each stage,
Examples of how the process was undertaken in Albania (2009) and Uzbekistan (2010).

(iii) Stages and Timing

The following table summarizes all the stages of the process, timing and time required for their completion :

Stage	Stage Description	Timing	Time Required
1.1	Define scope of the assignment	Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	5–10 days
1.2	Identify and mobilize stakeholders	Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	Approx. 10 days
1.3	Undertake preparatory work on the risks and vulnerabilities of energy sector	Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	10-15 days
2.1	Prepare risks and vulnerabilities evaluation framework for energy sector	Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	2 days
3.1	Run plenary workshop session to set the scene for the workshop and engage stakeholders	During ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	2 hours
3.2	Undertake participatory vulnerability assessment and identify risks	During ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	6 hours
3.3	Gain views of key vulnerabilities & risks	During meetings after the ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop	2-3 days
3.4	Analyze & evaluate priority risks	Between ‘Climate risks & vulnerabilities’ workshop and ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	2-4 weeks
4.1	Undertake preparatory work on adaptation options	Between ‘Climate risks & vulnerabilities’ workshop and ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	1-2 days
4.2	Validate risk register with stakeholders	At start of ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	1 hour
4.3	Introduce CBA & agree CBA objectives & boundaries	During ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	3.5 hours
4.4	Discuss & confirm adaptation options & parameters for CBA	During ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	3.5 hours
4.5	Identify data gaps	During and immediately following the ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	0.5 days
5.1	Obtain data for CBA	During meetings after the ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	1 day
5.2	Discuss climate change risks associated with adaptation options	During meetings after the ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	1 day
5.3	Undertake CBA	Following ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop and collection of data	Over a period of about 6 weeks
5.4	Discuss & confirm CBA with stakeholders	Six to eight weeks after ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	4 hours
6.1	Is there enough information to design and implement adaptation measures?	About eight weeks after ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop	1 day
7.1	Undertake adaptation measures as per timetable	Work can commence once adaptation measures have been confirmed	Time required will vary depending on the adaptation measures
8.1	Monitor climate impacts on the energy sector	On an ongoing basis	As part of routine operations
8.2	Monitor the performance of the adaptation measures	On an ongoing basis	As part of routine operations
8.3	Monitor new scientific information on climate change & its impacts on the energy sector	Following publication of major new international and national reports on climate change and its impacts	Typically 1-2 days per major report

Stage

Stage Description

Timing

Time Required

1.1

Define scope of the assignment

Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

5–10 days

1.2

Identify and mobilize stakeholders

Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

Approx. 10 days

1.3

Undertake preparatory work on the risks and vulnerabilities of energy sector

Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

10-15 days

2.1

Prepare risks and vulnerabilities evaluation framework for energy sector

Before ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

2 days

3.1

Run plenary workshop session to set the scene for the workshop and engage stakeholders

During ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

2 hours

3.2

Undertake participatory vulnerability assessment and identify risks

During ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

6 hours

3.3

Gain views of key vulnerabilities & risks

During meetings after the ‘Climate risks and vulnerabilities’ workshop

2-3 days

3.4

Analyze & evaluate priority risks

Between ‘Climate risks & vulnerabilities’ workshop and ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

2-4 weeks

4.1

Undertake preparatory work on adaptation options

Between ‘Climate risks & vulnerabilities’ workshop and ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

1-2 days

4.2

Validate risk register with stakeholders

At start of ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

1 hour

4.3

Introduce CBA & agree CBA objectives & boundaries

During ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

3.5 hours

4.4

Discuss & confirm adaptation options & parameters for CBA

During ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

3.5 hours

4.5

Identify data gaps

During and immediately following the ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

0.5 days

5.1

Obtain data for CBA

During meetings after the ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

1 day

5.2

Discuss climate change risks associated with adaptation options

During meetings after the ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

1 day

5.3

Undertake CBA

Following ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop and collection of data

Over a period of about 6 weeks

5.4

Discuss & confirm CBA with stakeholders

Six to eight weeks after ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

4 hours

6.1

Is there enough information to design and implement adaptation measures?

About eight weeks after ‘Climate risk management and cost-benefit analysis’ workshop

1 day

7.1

Undertake adaptation measures as per timetable

Work can commence once adaptation measures have been confirmed

Time required will vary depending on the adaptation measures

8.1

Monitor climate impacts on the energy sector

On an ongoing basis

As part of routine operations

8.2

Monitor the performance of the adaptation measures

On an ongoing basis

As part of routine operations

8.3

Monitor new scientific information on climate change & its impacts on the energy sector

Following publication of major new international and national reports on climate change and its impacts

Typically 1-2 days per major report