News
Energy Adaptation Toolkit Helps Policymakers Assess Climate Change Risks To Power Systems
August 20 2010
About 70 percent of the hydropower capacity in developing and transition countries—1,330 gigawatts (or billion watts)—is not yet exploited. As population and economies grow, pressure mounts for more rapid development of energy resources. Many countries are moving quickly to meet this rising demand by building hydro dams to harness this vast resource. The hydropower option is all the more attractive as it is a climate-friendly, renewable source of energy, and lower in carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions than coal, oil or gas.
But even if hydropower offers advantages, it is also vulnerable to climate change risks. Hydro dams, including both relatively small run-of-the-river turbines and large-scale reservoirs, depend on sustained water levels and rainfall. Climate change is already evident in more turbulent and frequent storms causing flooding, as well as drier, hotter weather that can play havoc with hydro facilities’ operations. Such changes can also affect the production and supply of energy from other sources, such as thermal power facilities that rely on large quantities of water for cooling. They can also have an impact on power transmission capacity, distribution networks and pipelines, while also affecting patterns of seasonal energy demand.
These challenges, while difficult, are not insurmountable. For example, in Albania, which gets about 90 percent of its electricity from hydropower, energy sector stakeholders from Government ministries and agencies, utilities and corporations, private companies, expert consultants, university academics and NGOs have taken action to address the problems of frequent power cuts and degraded hydropower infrastructure.
Working in partnership with the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the World Bank, Albanian officials have assessed climate risks and developed a plan to integrate adaptation options into energy sector policy-making and planning. The experience in Albania (video) led to the development of a “hands-on energy adaptation toolkit”, or HEAT. The purpose of HEAT is to enable stakeholders in other countries to engage in similar assessments.
HEAT, designed by a team led by Jane Ebinger, a Senior Energy Specialist for ESMAP, uses a bottom-up, stakeholder-based approach to assess climate risks to a country’s—or a sub-national state’s—energy supply and distribution, as well as potentially disruptive shifts in demand for energy. HEAT provides a step-by-step guide, as well as an analytical framework, to help policymakers consult with stakeholder groups to scope out climate risks and vulnerabilities. It then provides guidance on developing and selecting among options to manage these risks, as well as monitoring and evaluation.
While hydro is the predominant energy source in Albania, the HEAT methodology can be used to develop an energy adaptation strategy using different combinations of energy resource endowments. The toolkit has also been tested in Uzbekistan, for example, where the strategy that emerged from applying the HEAT methodology focused on addressing the vulnerability to water shortages of both hydropower and thermal power plants. Water crises are the principal barrier to Uzbekistan’s achievement of energy security, as thermal power plants require large volumes of water for cooling.
Albania uses HEAT to consider how best to ensure future energy security in the face of climate change
In Albania, the toolkit provided a structure in which officials and stakeholders met to address the potential impact on energy production of climate projections that predict more frequent droughts. It is estimated that such droughts could reduce electricity output from the country’s large hydropower plants by about 15 percent a year, and from its small hydropower plants by about 20 percent a year by 2050.
In Albania, the toolkit provided a structure in which officials and stakeholders met to address the potential impact on energy production of climate projections that predict more frequent droughts. It is estimated that such droughts could reduce electricity output from the country’s large hydropower plants by about 15 percent a year, and from its small hydropower plants by about 20 percent a year by 2050.
“A wide range of Albanian stakeholders met regularly over eight months to tackle these questions, using the toolkit’s methodology, including collaborative assessment of vulnerability, risk, and adaptation for the energy sector,” Jane Ebinger said. “Through structured workshops and meetings, they identified and prioritized 20 key risks and options for managing them.”
HEAT supported an analysis of the vulnerability of Albania’s energy system to climate change. The analysis assumed full implementation of Albania’s draft National Energy Strategy (NES), which sets out an “active scenario” to improve energy security between now and 2020. The analysis also made some assumptions to extend the “active scenario” to 2050. The results of this assessment reveal an energy shortfall equivalent to 3 percent of total demand by 2050, due to climate change.
A report, documenting the results of stakeholder discussions and the above analysis, calls for adaptation plans that will diversify the energy system by encouraging renewable energy, such as solar, small hydropower plants, wind, biomass and thermal power. Finally, it notes the importance of new electricity interconnection lines, some already under construction, to facilitate Albania’s active participation in the South East European energy market.
Link to “hands-on energy adaptation toolkit”, or HEAT
Link to Website: Adapting to Climate Change in Albania
Link to Albania Responding to Climate Change Video -7 minutes
Link to Website: Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia
For more information, please contact Jane Ebinger, ESMAP's Senior Energy Specialist, at jebinger@worldbank.org.