Publications

Topics
Country
Region
Using Forecasting Systems to Reduce Cost and Improve Dispatch of Variable Renewable Energy

This technical guide is the fourth in a series of four technical guides on variable renewable energy (VRE) grid integration produced by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) of the World Bank and the Global Sustainable Electricity Partnership (GSEP). It provides guidance on the role and benefits of forecasting as a cost-effective operational solution to manage the uncertainty of VRE generation and facilitate the integration of larger shares of these resources in the energy mix.

The guide focuses primarily on the types of forecasting methods and how physical and statistical models are used for developing short- to long-term forecasts. Technological advances in weather forecasting, together with better data on historical performance of renewable energy, allow significantly improved forecasting accuracy of VRE generation, which results in more efficient utilization. Examples from developing countries illustrate how the approach to forecasting varies depending on the country’s electricity market structure and requirements.

Citation

Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. 2019. Using Forecasting Systems to Reduce Cost and Improve Dispatch of Variable Renewable Energy. ESMAP Technical Guide;. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32072

Users also downloaded
Viet Nam's growing economy demands more energy, with untapped offshore wind resources, but policy clarity is needed to attract investment and achieve national targets through a balanced approach…
June 1 2025
This approach paper advocates for energy efficiency to be prioritized and scaled up for both low- and middle-income countries, based on the lessons learned through the World Bank Group’s engagements…
May 28 2025
 Most power utilities in West Africa are not financially sustainable. Several interrelated factors cause these performance issues, but dependence on liquid fuels, poor governance, insufficient…
May 18 2025
Progress toward universal electrification has reversed, with 685 million people still lacking access, highlighting the need for implementation capacity, affordability, financing, improved business…
May 16 2025